El Nino

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS

6 Aug 2009

Synopsis:  El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2009-2010. 

A weak El Niño was present during July 2009, as monthly sea surface temperatures (SST) departures ranged from +0.5°C to +1.5°C across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with the largest anomalies in the eastern half of the basin.

A majority of the model forecasts for the Niño suggest El Niño will continue to strengthen.  While there is disagreement on the eventual strength of El Niño, nearly all of the dynamical models predict a moderate-to-strong El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2009-10. 

Temperature and precipitation impacts over the United States are typically weak during the Northern Hemisphere Summer and early Fall, and generally strengthen during the late Fall and Winter.  El Niño can help to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing the vertical wind shear over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean

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